The Doppler Mets 2012 Forecast

If you hadn’t noticed from my Carlos Beltran post, my Fred Wilpon post, or my tribute to Gary Carter, I’m a huge New York Mets fan.

Around this time of year, I was very much aware that the Mets have no chance at a post-season appearance. The Philadelphia Phillies have ran away with the National League East and it appears that no other team in the league will be able to keep pace with the young and extremely talented Atlanta Braves.

However, the Mets have again transformed from competitive and exciting to injured and frustrating. It has been a common theme since the team moved from Shea Stadium to Citi Field in 2009. The only difference between the first two years of the new stadium in Flushing Meadows and this season: Sandy Alderson’s front office.

And for that, there is optimism brewing in Queens. While this team has been rather enjoyable to watch, most fans have to be careful with how to view this team.

The goal of this post is to try and map out what the 2012 New York Mets will look like.  All 25 of the potential players that will fill out the active roster will be included.

A Brief Explanation

For starters, we will assume that the Mets will stay with their theme over the last couple of season of carrying 12 pitchers on roster.

That leaves 5 spots on their bench and 7 relievers.

On their Mets bench, they tend to carry 1 catcher, 2 outfielders (1 of which needs to be able to play center), 1 utility infielder and 1 corner infielder

The bullpen is a mixed bag of everything, so I won’t go out of the way trying to break down what they normally carry.

All statistics provided are current as of August 23rd, 2011. Ages are as of Opening Day 2012. Minor League numbers will be included with an asterisk. The triple-slash of the statistics are Average-On Base Percentage-Slugging Percentage.

2012 Starting Infield

First Base: Ike Davis (25) – .302/.383/.543, 7HR 25RBI (36 games – out since May with an injured ankle)

–A lot of people forget just how great of a sophomore season that Ike Davis was having before his injury. 16 of Ike’s 39 hits in those 36 games went for extra bases. He seemed to drive in a run a game, and all of that came before the Mets had any production out of half their line-up and before Jose Reyes caught fire at the end of May.

Ike is simply the Mets future at first. He is the best defensive first basemen the Mets have had since John Olerud in the late 90’s and may prove to be the second greatest defensive first basemen in team history behind only Keith Hernandez. He is a true masher with real power (he was on pace for 32 home runs had he played a full season) and a formative left-handed bat in the middle of the Mets line-up. Even with the proposed changes to the outfield wall at Citi Field (finally), there wasn’t a portion of the ballpark Ike can’t crush it out of.

When he does come back fully healthy, which will be in plenty of time for Spring Training 2012, Mets fans will quickly remember the all-around talent that Ike Davis provides.

Second Base: Reese Havens (25)- .288/.373/.435, 4HR 24RBI* (52 games in A+/AA, missed time due to injury)

–Even more Mets fans tend to forget that Reese Havens was the Mets second first-round selection in 2008, behind Davis. Injuries have been the name of the game for Havens ever since he got drafted. Be it a bad back, a rib discomfort or a strained oblique, there has always been some form of malady to keep Havens on the sideline.

However, when he has been healthy, he has always performed. He has plus-power out of the second base position (he was a shortstop in college) and has always been credited with great plate discipline and gap-to-gap ability, both huge qualities Sandy Alderson looks for. As Toby Hyde of MetsMinorLeagueBlog has pointed out, the only reason why Havens may not get a September audition is because the Mets are likely to send him to the Arizona Fall League to get more at-bats.

I’m sure many Mets fans, myself included, have loved the play of Justin Turner at second base this season. But, what you see is what you’re going to get from Turner. There is little room left for him to improve. He is most certainly a valuable player to have on your 25-man roster, and I see him getting the corner infield slot on the Mets bench, especially with his ability to play shortstop in a pinch.

Other Mets fans are wondering why I haven’t mentioned Ruben Tejada as a possible second base candidate. Alderson has always stated his desire to get offense out of second base while also not sacrificing defense. Tejada is probably the best defensive middle infielder the Mets have, and he, too, will have a spot on the Mets bench in the utility infield position.

What may surprise people is that the true competition for the 2012 starting spot will come down to Havens and fast-rising prospect Jordany Valdespin (24, .289/.331/.469, 16HR 59RBI, 34 stolen bases). Valdespin has spent five season in the Mets farm system, entering as a 19-year in 2007. In his previous four seasons, Valdespin hit 14 home runs. This year, he has exploded to 16. The huge knock on Valdespin comes down to his defense (a converted shortstop that has committed 33 errors this season) and his poor baserunning decisions. The 34 stolen bases show case his speed for sure, but he’s also been caught 16 times (68% success rate, in other words: terrible).

The Mets have invested a lot into both players. The competition come Spring Training will be Reese Haven’s to lose. But, would it surprise anyone to see Valdespin become the Mets second basemen of the future? Absolutely not. Expect Valdespin to get a look in September when Havens goes to the Fall League.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes (28)- .336/.377/.507, 5HR 37RBI, 80 runs, 34 stolen bases (98 games, on DL for second time this season with strained hamstring)

–The Jose Reyes saga has been an incredible story to follow this season. He went from gone at the trade deadline, to too valuable to move, to league MVP and back to high injury risk. While I can guarantee you that Reyes will not get Carl Crawford money (7-year, $142 million), he will get somewhere in the neighborhood of five-years and $95 million from the Mets (and unless you’re Latrell Sprewell, that’ll feed the family).

His value to the Mets can not be described in such a short space, so I won’t even try. The fans would throw a revolution if Reyes were to move. He’s here for the long haul. He plays a near Gold Glove defense, is arguably the most dynamic lead-off hitter in baseball and he’s an absolute joy to watch.

Not to mention, he leads the National League with his .336 average and leads the majors with his 16 triples (on pace for 26 in a healthy season). The most surprising number most fans don’t realize about Reyes, he has 47 extra base hits. Currently, Justin Upton leads the NL in extra base hits with 65. He is on pace for roughly 81 this season. Had Reyes been healthy all year, he would’ve finished around the 77 mark. And of those extra base hits, less than 10 would’ve been home runs. That’s incredible.

Third Base: David Wright (29)- .259/.341/.425, 11HR 42RBI (69 games, missed time with a stress fracture in his back)

–All of Wright’s numbers for 2011 are much lower than they should be because the man played a month with a broken back. Think about that. It is safe to say that 2009 was an outlier for David Wright. Since he came off the DL, Wright has been the player that became a star from 2005-08.

He looks a lot slimmer since his trip to the DL, has altered his stance, is striking out a whole lot less and has gotten back to using the entire field (as evident from his opposite field home run in Philadelphia). Go ahead and pencil David in for his 162-game average (2009 included) of .301/.381/.510, 27HR 106RBI and Gold Glove defense. He’s arguably the best home-grown Mets player since the hey-days of Dwight Gooden and Darryl Strawberry in the 1980s.

Catcher: Josh Thole (25)- .268/.354/.355, 3HR 31RBI (89 games)

–For Thole, it will be about how he works on his defensive game in the off-season. Offensively, the Mets will take that triple-slash line any day from Thole. He will never hit for power (17 total extra-base hits), but will constantly find his way on base.

No matter what, there will be a right-handed hitting compliment to Thole on the roster. With the way Ronny Paulino (31, .289/.325/.366) has worked with the pitching staff, it probably will be him again. Paulino is the superior defender, but doesn’t do nearly as well against righties as he does lefties.

Down on the farm, the best option the Mets currently have is Alberto Cordero (22, .280/.311/.383, 6HR 39RBI). Problem is, Cordero is currently in Low-A Savannah. While he is ready for the majors defensively right now with a plus-arm and awesome mechanics, he is not refined enough offensively to make a difference. There is a chance that Cordero could skip A+ St. Lucie next year and go right to AA, but odds are he’ll split the year between the two, meaning he is at least two full seasons away from sniffing the big club.

2012 Starting Outfield

Left Field: PLATOON– Absolutely, we are at this point.

RH: Jason Bay (33)- .236/.319/.345, 9HR 43RBI, 90 strikouts (99 games, missed time due to oblique strain)

LH: Daniel Murphy (27)- .320/.362/.448, 6HR 49RBI, .364 BA with RISP, .355 BA with RISP and 2 outs (109 games, strained knee ligiments ended his season)

–As I said, we are absolutely to this point. It is getting to a point where the optimism when Jason Bay goes 1 for 4 with a hard hit out is sad. For whatever reason, Bay has been a huge failure in Queens. A phenomenal failure.

Sandy Alderson showed last spring that he isn’t afraid of eating contracts in the case of Luis Castillo and Oliver Perez. But, Bay has two years left on his deal and $32 million total. It makes sense to give him another year before the organization gets to that point. However, he can not be an everyday starter anymore. He is a black hole in this line-up.

As for Murph, we’ve been down this road before. And as annoying as it is to point out Bay’s inability to hit, it is equally annoying to point to the fact that Daniel Murphy does not have a natural defensive position. The position he looks most comfortable at is first, but he will not replace Ike Davis.

Regardless, the man can flat-out hit. He was in the top 5 of the batting title race before he blew out his knee. He has such a smooth stroke and drives the ball to all fields. He hits well enough that the Mets will either find him a place to play, or trade him to get the highest value possible from an American League team.

Murphy looked fine in 2008 when he debuted in left field. But in 2009, he suffered from a serious case of the yips out there. It got to a point where it was so bad, the Mets (who only won 70 games that year) decided he couldn’t play out there anymore. Terry Collins has stated if Murphy wants to play on this team, he will need to learn the outfield. Well, this is the only scenario Murphy can get into the line-up: Learn left field, or we’ll trade you.

Hopefully, he learns left field. If he can do that successfully, he may completely bump Bay out of playing time and continue to add to the incredible depth in this line-up.

Center field: B.J. Upton (27)- .225/.304/.391, 17HR 58RBI, 26 stolen bases (currently on Tampa Bay Rays, eligible for arbitration after the season)

–I will admit that a portion of this idea came from a very lengthy conversation I had with Brian May, my college housemate and fellow Mets fanatic.

The worst kept secret in all of baseball is that the Rays will either trade Upton this off-season or non-tender him at the arbitration deadline, making him a free agent. Upton is almost as frustrating to Rays fans as the man he would be replacing in New York, Angel Pagan.

After 2009, when the entire team crapped their pants, the consensus in the Mets front office was the mental lapses of Pagan would cost him any chance of starting in the long run. Well, somehow, he seemed to have turned the corner in 2010, when he hit .290, 11HR 69RBI, stole 37 bases and played a strong enough center field that the team moved Carlos Beltran to right.

This year? Its like watching the ’09 Pagan all over again. He seems lost at times in center and on the base paths, he pulls off pitches and he doesn’t seem to play the game as crisp as he had before. Pagan, too, is arbitration elgible after this season and is in line to be awarded around $4 million.

Now, if the Mets decide to bring in Upton, they will most likely have to spend around $8-10 million per season. Upton is younger than Pagan and plays premium defense in center. With the Mets getting plenty of offense from other positions (sans Bay), they could theoretically absorb another slow offensive season from Upton as long as he continues to save runs with his glove.

Do the Mets spend the exta $4 million+ on defense and potential or do they give Pagan a reprieve on his unfortunate season? Mets fans would say the former and not the latter.

In the farm system, it appears evident that Fernando Martinez (23, .260/.329/.417, 8HR 30RBI) no longer possesses the speed to play center field.

Say Upton signs in New York on a one-year deal to showcase his talents in a bigger market (absolutely conceivable), the Mets are high on Kirk Nieuwenhuis (24, .298/.403/.505, 6HR 14RBI). In fact, had Captain Kirk not made an amazing catch in center that dislocated his non-throwing shoulder, Nieuwenhuis would have certainly got a look this year when Pagan missed time with injury.

Further down the line, the Mets also have Matt den Dekker (24, .272/.346/.472, 15HR 62RBI between A+ and AA) who is hands-down the Mets best defensive center field prospect and is in the discussion for best defensive prospect in all of baseball. He has put up huge numbers this year in the extra-base hit department (57 total: 31 doubles, 11 triples and 15 home runs), but is another full season of AAA ball away from performing on the big stage.

Best case scenario, the Mets bring in Upton on a one-or-two year deal to let den Dekker and Nieuwenhuis buy time in the minors.

Right Field: Lucas Duda (26)- .279/.346/.475, 7HR 35RBI (73 games, part of season spent in AAA-Buffalo)

–Similar to Murphy, Lucas Duda will be given every opportunity to win the right field job outright in Spring Training. It would be hard to imagine the Mets finding anyone that has the power capability that Duda has that wouldn’t come at a premium cost.

Since July, the Big Ox has hit all 7 of his home runs after hitting none in the first three months of the year. In fact, 12.6 at-bats between home runs average to just under 40 in a 500 at-bat season. Like Davis, there isn’t a spot in Citi Field that could contain Duda if he got a hold of it.

While the power is awesome, Duda possesses a true knowledge of the strike zone that has impressed the entire organization. He has shown an ability to adjust his swing to appropriate situations, and he even had the baseball smarts to lay down a sacrifice bunt that eventually led to a game-winning run.

If Duda can prove to play an average right field (another reason for a plus-defender in center like Upton), his bat will find its way into the starting line-up regularly.

As for the farm, it is much to early to talk about the likes of 2011 first-round pick Brandon Nimmo as nothing more than a pipe dream. Cory Vaughn (22, .267/.383/.397, 9HR 49RBI) is looking like a legitimate Major Leaguer down the road. But, like Cordero, he is probably a solid two years away from making an impact.

Bench

Utility Infielder: Ruben Tejada (22, .276/.365/.323 0HR 24RBI) (67 games in MLB this year)

–As I covered briefly in the second base section, Tejada will be in the running for the starting job, but most likely won’t win it. He will never provide a lot of pop at the plate. But, he has terrific baseball instincts and a great eye at the plate.

Even more, he plays probably the best defense up the middle out of anyone on the Mets not named Reyes. His glove will keep him in the Major Leagues for a long time. And it is ridiculous to think that every player out of the Minors needs to be a star. There is nothing wrong with having a sure bat and great glove off the bench. Tejada fills this role nicely.

Corner Infielder: Justin Turner (27, .258/.325/.358, 4HR 43RBI, 24 doubles) (93 games in MLB)

–Again, as covered in the second base portion, Turner absolutely provides a spark this team desperately needs. He and Daniel Murphy provide such energy in the dugout that it doesn’t make sense to fill out a 25-man roster that doesn’t have both of them on it.

And like Tejada, there is nothing wrong with Turner being on the bench. His numbers have taken a dip recently because he is apparently playing through a number of maladies, but the line he has right now is probably the line he would post year in and year out. If you could count on 300 at-bats, a .260 average with gap power on your bench, all while playing four infield positions, you take that every time, right? Right.

Reserve Catcher: Ronny Paulino (see catcher section)

Utility Outfielder: Scott Hairston (31, .235/.303/.470, 7HR 24RBI) (79 games, 145 plate appearances)

–Hairston got off to such a slow start for the Mets this season that his batting average still hasn’t recovered. However, he has been phenomenal in a reserve role recently. The only question with Hairston: how well can he play center?

The last spot on this bench would go to whoever isn’t starting in the Jason Bay/Daniel Murphy platoon. Now, Terry Collins has said emphatically that both Hairston and Bay have the ability to play center field. However, neither have. And with September call-ups around the corner, neither probably will.

If Hairston can prove better than serviceable in center, then the Mets will certainly keep him. If they feel a better defensive back-up option is there in center field (say, Rick Ankiel), they may look down that avenue. Even money is saying Scott Hairston has a second season in Citi Field.

Corner Outfielder: Jason Bay/Daniel Murphy (see Left Field)

Pitching

Starters:

Johan Santana (33)- Been on DL for the entire 2011 Season

–With Johan, its very simple. When he has been healthy, he’s a Cy Young candidate every year. The problem for him has been staying healthy.

Santana is apparently on course to be healthy for Day 1 of Spring Training. But, he was also supposed to be on course for being in the Mets rotation by the All-Star break.

Santana could be the difference between the Mets being an over-.500 team and or a team that will repeat the course of this year. Time will tell and we will see if Johan can be the guy that pitched the Mets within one game of the playoffs in 2008.

R.A. Dickey (37)- 167.0 innings, 5-11, 3.72ERA, 1.26WHIP

–The RA Dickey has been the best Mets pitcher for the last two seasons, no question. There was a lot of worry coming into the 2011 season that Dickey’s 2010 success would prove to be nothing more than a flash in the pan.

The second time through the league possessing a below-average fastball and three variations of a knuckleball, many people thought the book would be out. And when Dickey got off to a slow start, there was significant fear that all of that was coming true.

Then the Dickey injured his plantar, and apparently that’s the jump start he needed. He has been a rock in this rotation. Alderson locked him up to a two-year deal last off-season, and there is no reason to believe Dickey will pitch anywhere else in 2012. He will be in the rotation, and, like Wright in the line-up, lock Dickey down for 30+ starts, a 3.50 ERA and 140 Ks. Done deal.

Let’s move on.

Jonathon Niese (25)- 157.1 innings, 11-11, 4.40ERA, 138 Ks, 1.41WHIP

–When you talk about Jon Niese, everything tends to be positive even when the results aren’t. The only thing that makes me nervous about that scenario is 2008 Me was saying the same exact sentence in regards to Mike Pelfrey, who I will get to in a minute.

However, it is evident that Niese has things figured out. He needs to work his entire arsenal into his starts better, as he tends to fall in love with one pitch which eventually gets him into trouble.

What you have to remember is that Niese is only 25, though it feels like he’s been around forever. He has the potential to become a good compliment number 2 starting pitcher, like a poor man’s Tom Glavine.

Niese began to put it together this year before he tweaked his back in his last couple starts. Should Niese be able to perform up to expectations next season, it wouldn’t be unrealistic to imagine him posting 15+ wins with an ERA hovering around the 3.75 mark. Lower the WHIP and you have yourself a borderline All-Star.

Dillon Gee (25)- 127.2 innings, 11-5, 4.37ERA, 85 Ks, 1.30WHIP

–Dillon Gee got off to a powerful start, winning his first 8 decisions in his rookie season. From the get-go, Gee has looked EXACTLY like Rick Reed from the 1998-2001 stretch of Mets success. He even wears Reed’s #35.

Gee will never be a top-of-the-rotation talent that can win on his stuff alone. Instead, Gee lives by nibbling at the corners, throwing strikes, and using his devastating change-up. Whenever Gee has limited his walks and stays in the strike zone, he finds an abundance of success. Its when he loses control of his pitches or shies away from his change-up that he finds trouble.

However, you can do a whole lot worse than Dillon Gee out of your 4 or 5 spot in the rotation. He will give you innings, will keep the defense busy and will battle. Every rotation needs a Dillon Gee. He will be in New York for the foreseeable future. And I look forward to watching his development.

Jason Marquis (33)- 132.0 innings, 8-6, 4.43ERA, 76 Ks, 1.49WHIP

–Now, this is important on two fronts. The first, the only scenario I like the Mets bringing in Marquis would be on a one-year contract. A lot has to be said about a player wanting to play for your team. The Staten Island native has once again stated his desire to pitch in his hometown and compete at a high level.

Also, Marquis is a proven winner. He’s been to the playoffs on every team he’s played for with the exception of the Washington Nationals. The Diamondbacks, who are making a surprising run for the National League West crown, made a priority to acquire Marquis at the deadline to add depth to the rotation. Now granted, an Angel Pagan line drive off Marquis’ shin broke his leg and ended his season.

Marquis will eat innings for you, all while giving you team a chance to win every five games. In a transitional year like the Mets will be going through in 2012, where they want to be competitive and win while not throwing the long-term plan off its tracks, a pitcher like Jason Marquis on a reasonable one-year contract will prove invaluable.

Along with Marquis, it is possible the Mets will consider bringing back Chris Capuano (33, 9-11, 4.71ERA, 123 Ks) on another one-year contract or even injured starter Chris Young (32, 1-0, 1.88ERA) on another performance-laden contract. But, I feel the Mets will lean in the direction of Marquis this time around.

The second thing the signing of Marquis signals is the end of the Mike Pelfrey (28, 6-10, 4.61ERA). Look, he’s been a Met for 6 years now. When he won 13 games in 2008 and posted a 3.72ERA, everybody thought that Big Pelf had finally turned the corner. Only he took two steps backwards in 2009 with a bloated ERA of 5.03. Then, 2010 happened and Pelfrey looked like a bona fide number 2 pitcher behind Johan Sanatana. But now, the jury is hung on Pelfrey.

No player on the Mets this season has proven to be as frustrating as Pelf. Even when he does well, fans are irritated that he can’t duplicate his success in consecutive starts. Furthermore, Pelfrey has proven time and time again that he is dreadful against National League East opponents.

Like Pagan, Pelfrey will be up for arbitration again after this season. Reports say that it is likely Pelfrey will earn somewhere in the neighborhood of $6 million out of the process.

One way to look at the situation is this:

If you kept Pagan and Pelfrey, you would be committing roughly $10 million to the two players. Would you swap the contracts of Pagan and Pelfrey for B.J. Upton, who would command that salary on his contract? I would guess many Mets fans would say yes.

Listen, as much crap as the Mets farm system has taken throughout the last couple of years, there is one clear truth to their minor leagues: they have a ton of upside potential starting pitchers.

Matt Harvey (23, 12-5, 3.17ERA, 151 Ks in 127.2 innings) is the best of the talent. He will absolutely start 2012 in AAA and will be the first in line if a pitcher is lost to injury. Right behind him, the Mets have Jeurys Familia (22, 5-4, 2.81ERA, 120 Ks in 109 innings) who will also open 2012 in AAA, phenom Jenrry Mejia who will be 22 and coming off Tommy John surgery, but should be ready by May and will start in AAA. That three-headed monster in AAA with the likes of Marquis and Dickey working off essentially one year contracts is promising. Plus, newly acquired Zack Wheeler and suprising 2011 success story lefty Darin Gorski will be in AA.

Pelfrey is expendable because of this talent and the fact that his $6 million can be better spent elsewhere.

Bullpen

The Bullpen is a little hard to predict. There are a couple of givens, however.

Middle Relievers:

Pedro Beato (25)

–Beato came out of the gates fast and furious, posting an impressive scoreless inning streak. Recently, his performances have been up and down. But, the Mets took a Rule 5 flier on him and he has proven to be a Major League arm with some nasty stuff. A year under his belt in the bigs should prove to be worth while and he will be in next year’s bullpen.

Manny Acosta (30)

–Acosta has flashes of pure briliance, then can look absolutely lost in a matter of minutes. Being a cheap, under contract option, the Mets will give Acosta every chance to make the team out of Spring Training

Josh Stinson (24)

–The Mets gave Stinson every opportunity to work his way into a potential rotation spot. After struggling in that role in AAA, Stinson was moved to the bullpen and has proven dominant. He hits 94-95 constantly and Terry Collins absolutely loves his ability. Stinson will get a September audition, and he will most likely stick in the team’s long-term plans.

The lefty out of the bullpen and the long reliever is hard to predict. Odds are, D.J. Carrasco will serve as the team’s longman since he is under contract for another season. Tim Byrdak could come back, but there are an abundance of lefties that will come on the cheap that the Mets will wait to commit to anyone.

Closer: Bobby Parnell (27)

–Parnell has been the prodigy child for two years now. This is the job the team has been grooming him for. Personally, I never understood why any team would want to pay big money for a closer, a position that only needs to get three outs in a game his team is already winning.

If the team doesn’t hand the reigns over to Parnell next year, the team may never make the transition. He has the triple-digit fastball, the disgusting hard slider and the make-up to shut the door. The question is, can Parnell make the transition from flamethrower to power pitcher?

Its a transition that will prove to be one of the biggest stories in Spring Training. Odds are, Parnell will be given the job and the team will hope that he accepts the role head on.

So. After all that, here’s how I imagine your 2012 New York Mets starting line-up:

1. Jose Reyes, SS

2.  B.J. Upton, CF

3. David Wright, 3B

4. Ike Davis, 1B

5. Lucas Duda, RF

6. Jason Bay/Daniel Murphy, LF

7. Reese Havens, 2B

8. Josh Thole, C

Starting Rotation would look something like this:

Johan Santana, R.A. Dickey, Jonathon Niese, Dillon Gee, Jason Marquis

Closing: Bobby Parnell

Is this going to happen according to plan? I don’t know. This is how I would imagine the Mets continue their transformation.

Your thoughts?

 

 

Oakland Raiders select Terrelle Pryor in Supplemental Draft

On Monday, the Oakland Raiders were awarded a third-round selection for former Ohio State quarterback Terrelle Pryor in the NFL’s Supplemental Draft (ESPN News).

As a result, the Raiders will lose their rights to their 2012 third round pick. The Raiders will now be without a second, third or fourth round pick in the 2012 draft. Oakland traded their second-round pick in a draft day trade last year, and the Washington Redskins own the right to their fourth-round pick as part of the Jason Campbell trade.

 Pryor elected to forgo his senior season at Ohio State after allegations of further NCAA violations arose in the midst of the Jim Tressel situation that led to the coach’s resignation.

Pryor will be forced to serve a five-game suspension that will take place start Week 1. Pryor will, however, be eligible to participate in all pre-season practices and the Raiders two remaining preseason games.

In theory, this is a positive move for the Raiders on two fronts. The first and most obvious is it gives the Raiders their quarterback of the future they coveted entering the 2011 draft. Unsatisfied with the available talent in the draft, the Raiders failed to select a quarterback and decided to wait on it until a future date.

Lost in the controversy of the NCAA investigation is the fact that Pryor was a very successful quarterback that contained a large amount of athletic gifts. Last year, he threw for 2,772 yards and 27 touchdowns while rushing for over 700 yards as well. Furthermore, he ran a 4.36 40-yard dash on his pro day.

The Raiders have been trying to find a winning quarterback since the days of Rich Gannon. The likes of Jeff Garcia, Bruce Gradkowski, Aaron Brooks, Duante Culpepper, former first overall draft bust JaMarcus Russell and, most recently, Jason Campbell have tried to solidify the position. None have been very successful at it. In the case of Russell, he may have single-handedly put the organization back three years.

Pryor will be allowed to groom and learn, with the Raiders committed to Campbell for this season. Given a full year to practice and learn under Huey Jackson’s offense will be beneficial and will put the Raiders back onto the right track in the long run.

However, there could be another positive that needs to be mentioned from the drafting of Terrelle Pryor. A lot of scouts and experts have said that Pryor may be best used as a wide receiver at the next level. If that’s the case, then he is still in a fantastic situation in Oakland. The Raiders do not have a true number one receiving option with the corps currently made up of a mixed bag of underachievers and bargain bin pick-ups.

Darrius Heyward-Bay, a former seventh overall draft selection, has been a phenomenal bust as well, but not quite on the same level as Russell. When healthy, former Florida Gator Louis Murphy has flashed premium talent. And Raider officials are enamored with the abilities of Jacoby Ford and his dynamic speed.

The Raiders love speed and size. At 6’5″ and with his 4.36 40-time, Pryor provides both of those attributes. Could he follow the likes of college quarterbacks-turned-receiver alums Hines Ward, Antwaan Randle-El and Brad Smith? That remains to be seen.

For now, the Raiders will give Pryor every chance to be their quarterback of the future. As for Ohio State?

Well, at least their future looks brighter than that of the University of Miami.

Greg Kaplan is a co-founder of Home Field Advantage

Rock You Like a Hurricane

It has been about a week since the Yahoo! Sports revealed the massive violations that have gone down with the University of Miami football and basketball programs. Since then, there has been a lot of talk about sanctions, penalties and even a NCAA death sentence. So, time to play catch-up and put it into simplier terms.

Ponzi scheme mastermind Nevin Shapiro reportedly invested millions into the University of Miami football and basketball teams both legally and illegally. It has been reported that 72 student-athletes between 2002 and 2010 received some form of benefits from Shapiro, be it cash, cars or even prostitutes.

Shapiro, serving a 28-year prison sentence for his role in the Ponzi scheme, was open and candid about his involvement with Yahoo! Sports. In fact, his willingness to throw the organization he loved so much under the bus was a little bit troubling. To me, it had a little bit of a Wee Bay feel (The Wire, greatest show ever) where Wee Bay already knew he was going to serve life in prison for murder and shooting a cop, so he started taking credit for everything that went on with the Avon Barksdale drug ring.

If you haven't watched 'The Wire', get on that.

So, what is the smoking gun that apprently set off Shapiro on this The U hating spree? Apparently, the university became displeased with Shapiro’s payment plan towards a new student center that was named after him. In response, Miami removed his name from the building and discontinued their legal relationship with Shapiro.

Whoops.

Due to the report, the NCAA has launched an all-inclusive investigation into what actually went down within the programs. It probably won’t be until after the 2011-12 NCAA football season until there is an official ruling, so one can only speculate what type of penalty will be handed down.

However, that hasn’t stopped anybody from sharing their opinion as to what should be done. NCAA president Mark Emmertt has said, without refering directly to Miami, that if it is deemed necessary to hand out the “death penalty”, then the NCAA will see fit to do that. Notre Dame head football coach Brian Kelly has stated that he would like to see the harshest penalty taken to those who don’t play by the rules, and Alabama coach Nick Saban said something similar.

For clarification sake, the death penalty would be the discontinuation of an athletic program at a university. That program would cease to exist. No coaches. No players. No fans. Everything about the program would stop dead in its tracks and disappear.

 The last time the NCAA handed out a penalty as severe as the death penalty came in the 1980s with the Southern Methodist University, better known as SMU. If you want the complete story of what happened, make sure to go to ESPN and re-watch their phenomenal 30 for 30 documentary “The Pony Excess”.

20+ years removed from the death penalty and SMU is still recovering. They appeared in their first bowl game post-death penalty in 2009, and the last two years were the first time in 25 years the program posted back-to-back seasons with winning records.

If there were a situation to lay down a death penalty, this seems to be the exact case. To review, Jim Tressel, one of the most successful coaches in Ohio State history, lost his job over a “lack of compliance” with NCAA rules when it came to players selling their own memoralbilia. Southern Cal got a two-year post-season ban and Reggie Bush lost his Heisman Trophy over accepted benefits. And Michigan basketball is still recovering from “The Years that Weren’t” when it was discovered the Fab Five received benefits.

This isn’t one coach or one player. This is one INSTITUTION. The argument can be made that quite simply, the coaches didn’t know. But, something this explicit, how could nobody on the coaching staff not be aware of what is happening? Shapiro was a booster that had deep roots with this particular school. He had a building with his name on it. There had to be some awareness on the school’s part that this guy was doing things under the table to help the program.

This has been a real disgusting year for Miami sports fans. The “Big Three” didn’t fulfill their promise. The Dolphins failed to address their quarterback situation. And the Marlins remained the Marlins. Now, their pride and joy, their most successful entity over the last decade, is on the brink of extinction.

I’m sorry Schwartz. But, it doesn’t look good for THE U.

Greg Kaplan is a co-founder of Home Field Advantage

Making Sense of the MLB Trade Deadline

Whoa. Ok. That was a lot of movement. Between the new players on new teams in the NFL and now MLB, my head is spinning.

Naturally, when there is any sort of mass player movement in any of the major sports leagues in the United States, we must pick ourselves some winners and losers. So, why should we be any different?

We will break this down into three categories: winners, losers and those in limbo. That’s right. You came for two, and we’re giving you a third on top of that. Take that, ESPN!

WINNERS:

Texas Rangers:

-Acquired RP Koji Uehara from BAL for SP Tommy Hunter and 1B Chris Davis

-Acquired RP Mike Adams from SD for 2 pitching prospects

The Texas Rangers are the best team in the American League not playing in the East. They had a clear weakness on their ballclub: the bullpen. They can mash with the best of them and they have solid starting pitching thanks to All-Stars C.J. Wilson and Alexi Ogando. However, their bullpen ranked 11th in the league and outside of Arthur Rhodes, the unit was under-performing.

One American League official went as far to say that if the Rangers were able to trade for Uehara (1.71 ERA, 62 Ks in 47.0 innings), they would play in the World Series. Ok, maybe that guy got ahead of himself. But, the Rangers did pick up the most dominate reliever available for their eighth inning, then got Mike Adams (1.13 ERA, 0.73 WHIP, 49 Ks in 48.0 innings) to shorten the game even more. Starters need only to go six innings with Adams, Uehara and Neftali Feliz to round out the ‘pen.

The Rangers did part with a youthful arm in Tommy Hunter (13 wins as a 23-year old in 2010), but the team had given up on fixing Chris Davis (24 Ks in 76 at bats this season). As for the pitching prospects, they weren’t the best the team had to offer, which is always good to hear from an organizational stand point. The Texas Rangers had the best deadline, dare I say.

New York Mets:

-Acquired two players to be named later from MIL for RP Francisco Rodriguez

-Acquired SP Zack Wheeler from SF for OF Carlos Beltran

Whoa! Before you go calling me a homer, understand something. First, the Mets escaped from what was going to become a vesting option of $17.5 million to Francisco Rodriguez if he finished 55 games this season. Emphasis on finished. He could’ve lost 55 games this year and it wouldn’t have mattered, the option would’ve kicked. All he had to do was be the last pitcher to appear in the game. Literally, my grandmothers could be the players to be named later in that deal with Milwaukee, and it won’t matter. That money is going right to Jose Reyes, thankfully.

Second, you need to realize that had the Mets held onto Carlos Beltran, they would not have been able to offer him salary arbitration. In fancy talk, that means the Mets wouldn’t have gotten any draft pick compensation for Beltran had he left in free agency. He would qualify as a Type A free agent, which normally means the team that signs him surrenders their first round pick to the Mets, plus a compensation pick at the end of the first round. But, none of that would’ve gone to the Mets due to a loophole in his contract (damn you, Scott Boars!).

Third, while the Mets had offers from teams to either A) bring home a truck of B-level prospects, B) pay off Beltran’s remaining $6 million+ or C) both, Sandy Alderson and company held firm on getting the best available player they could. And, you know what? They did just that. Wheeler was the Giants’ best pitching prospect (out of a system that has produced Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain and Madison Bumgarner, among others) and Baseball America had recently rated Wheeler as high as 35th out of all prospects in baseball. Wheeler immediately slots into one of the top four Mets pitching prospect slots (along with Matt Harvey, Jenrry Meija and Jeurys Familia) and projects to be a power, top-rotation type pitcher.

Getting value for Beltran was key for Alderson. He accomplished that, and that makes the Mets winners at the deadline even though they probably aren’t competing for a playoff spot. Hooray!

Houston Astros:

-Acquired OF Jordan Schafer and 3 pitching prospects from ATL for OF Michael Bourn and cash

-Acquired SP Jarred Cosart, 1B Jonathan Singleton and 2 prospects from PHI for OF Hunter Pence

Alright, another team that isn’t competing for a playoff spot. You think I’m crazy. Hey, you may be right. But, you need to look long-term here.

Remember, the Astros are stuck in the king of rebuilding projects and have a new owner coming into office. They need a franchise makeover. Does it hurt to trade away the face of the franchise and the one productive player on the team? Absolutely.

But, what does that say about your franchise if Hunter Pence is your keystone guy? Is he a good player? Absolutely. Should he be the best player on your team? No way.

In Cosart and Singleton, the Astros got the Phillies two best prospects not named Dominic Brown. That’s a win right there. From the Braves, they got 3 pitchers that project into productive parts, but not necessarily stars. However, they sold Bourn when his stock was highest, so that should be commended.

San Francisco Giants:

-Acquired OF Carlos Beltran from NYM for SP Zack Wheeler

-Acquired INF Orlando Cabrera from CLE for player to be named later

We already covered the Beltran trade from the Mets angle. The Giants angle is a lot easier to understand. They needed immediate pop in the middle of their order. Well, that’s Beltran.

What I love even more is the acquisition of Orlando Cabrera. This man IS playoff baseball. I understand the Indians traded him because their second baseman of the future has been playing well, but Cabrera is a lock to make the playoffs on whatever team he is on. I don’t know why, it’s just the truth. Expect Cabrera to play the 2010 Edgar Renteria role on this team.

Oh, and by the way, remember that it was Renteria who was named World Series MVP last year.

Team that went in the right direction, but didn’t impress: Detroit Tigers, Arizona Diamondbacks

LOSERS:

New York Yankees:

-No major acquisitions

Absorb that sentence for a little bit, Yankee fans. Your general manager has pretty much informed you that he feels the mix of Ivan Nova, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Phil Hughes will be good enough for a long run in the October. To me, that seems a little bit optimistic. And by optimistic, I mean delusional.

This team needed a starting pitcher in the worst way. C.C. Sabathia would be the likely Cy Young Award winner for the American League if Justin Verlander didn’t exist. But, after him, A.J. Burnett? And that’s really all you can trust? Wait, we’re trusting A.J. Burnett now? Oh, brother.

Hey, in their defense, it’s not like the Yankees didn’t try. They really wanted Hiroki Kuroda, but he refused to waive his no-trade clause and chose to stay in Los Angeles. They tried to get Ubaldo Jiminez (I’m not done with him) from Colorado before the Indians package trumped the Yankees. And, its not like the Red Sox and the Rays broke the bank in their trades either. But, the Red Sox did improve their rotation (Erik Bedard) and they added infield depth (Mike Aviles).

The Yankees didn’t do anything, and that hurts.

Cleveland Indians:

–Acquired SP Ubaldo Jiminez from COL for SP Drew Pomeranz, SP Alex White and 3 prospects

-Acquired OF Kosuke Fukudome from CHI for 2 prospects

-Acquired a player to be named later from SF for INF Orlando Cabrera

The Cleveland Indians feel that they are in the thick of the race for the AL Central. And, less than three games out of first certainly means they are in the race. The Twins held firm at the deadline, the White Sox appeared to be sellers, and the Detroit Tigers added a nice piece in SP Doug Fister, but he doesn’t necessarily put them over the edge.

So, kudos to the Indians for putting in the effort to try and win this division. Now, time for my problems with both of these trades. Starting with Fukudome.

Ok, I understand their offense needed a bit of an upgrade. Not a full upgrade like the Giants needed, but enough of one where the Indians offered to pay Beltran’s entire remaining salary to the Mets plus prospects. So, why did they go after a guy that is ranked behind the likes of Ryan Theriot and Brian Schneider in terms of his career production rate on BaseballReference.com? Fukudome’s beautiful triple slash (average/on-base/slugging) for 2011? .273/.374/.369

Yikes. Not sure where I should be seeing an upgrade. Luckily, I’m not overly impressed with the prospects they gave up for the aging outfielder. So there’s that.

But, believe it or not, I had a bigger problem with their trade for Rockies ace Ubaldo Jiminez. In his first 16 decisions of 2010, Jiminez went 15-1 and looked like the shoe-in for NL Cy Young. Since then, however, Jiminez has gone 10-17. This year, he sat at 6-9 with a 4.46 ERA, a far cry from his 2.88 in 2010, and that was even lower in the first half of 2010.

Furthermore, does anybody else find it strange that the Rockies were so quick to trade Ubaldo Jiminez? He’s under team control until 2014, and its not like the Rockies are cheap when it comes to locking down their home grown talent (see: Tulowitzki, Troy and Gonzalez, Carlos). So, I smell something that the Rockies are seeing that maybe the Indians are not. The shine on Jiminez seems to be fading in the sense that Francisco Liriano is not the pitcher we all thought he’d be, either.

Also, the Rockies made out like bandits here. They acquired two of the Indians last three first round picks (Pomeranz and White). In fact, those two picks were both Top-10 selections. Pomeranz was such a recent selection that you see his name in the transaction column as “player to be named later” because the Indians aren’t allowed to trade him since he hasn’t been a member of the organization for a full calender year yet.

The Rockies are exceptionally good at rebuilding on the fly. They now have two controllable power arms that may be ready by next year or 2013. And the Indians? They traded for the market’s largest questionmark. You can be aggressive to a fault at the trade deadline. Unfortunately, that’s what the Indians were.

San Diego Padres:

-Acquired a prospect from PIT for OF Ryan Ludwick

-Acquired two prospects from TEX for RP Mike Adams

Ok, the Padres got the most out of what they could for the players they traded. The problem in San Diego is more of who they didn’t trade: closer Heath Bell.

Bell is a very good closer and a huge fan favorite in San Diego (as he was at Shea Stadium when he was the conductor of the old Norfolk Shuttle). But, the Padres probably did themselves a disservice by not trading him away. This was the highest his trade value would ever be, and now the team has put themselves in a situation where they will have to pay the big bucks to keep their stopper long-term.

Now, hindsight is always 20-20. This non-move could turn out to be great for the franchise. But, I honestly do not like it when teams invest in relievers not named Rivera. So, I will let this one play out a little bit. I just don’t understand why a team in full fledged rebuild mode wouldn’t move their most valuable asset that could be replaced rather quickly from within.

Other teams that disappointed, but not as poorly: Oakland A’s, Washington Nationals

Teams in Limbo

Chicago White Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, St. Louis Cardinals:

Basically I group all three teams together because they conducted the largest, craziest trade of the deadline period. Stay with me here:

White Sox acquired RP Jason Frasor and SP Zach Stewart from the Blue Jays

Blue Jays acquired INF Mark Teahan from the White Sox, OF Colby Rasmus, SP Brian Tallet, RP Trevor Miller and RP P.J. Walters from the Cardinals

Cardinals acquired SP Edwin Jackson from White Sox, RP Octavio Dotel, RP Marc Rzepczynski, OF Corey Patterson and three players to be named later from Blue Jays

Have you digested all that? So, how do three teams conduct a huge trade and seemingly stay in the same place they were pre-trade? I’ll explain.

For the White Sox, General Manager Kenny Williams just confuses me to no end. When the team should be sellers, he buys. When the team should be buyers, he sells. He gave Adam Dunn a four-year contract when no team was willing to go more than two. He picked up Alexis Rios from the Blue Jays when the team was bound to release him anyway. I don’t get it.

Edwin Jackson was having a good year, and the White Sox did well to sell him when his value was high because Jackson has been an up-and-down talent his entire career, hence why he’s played for six teams in eight years. Mostly, the White Sox stay in limbo with this trade because while Zach Stewart is a promising pitching prospect from Toronto, he is no Daniel Hudson, who is the player the White Sox traded to get Jackson in the first place.

For the Blue Jays, I think I understand this trade. I think. The big prize they picked up is OF Colby Rasmus, who was once one of the best prospects in all of baseball while he was maturing in the St. Louis farm system. He hit .276 with 23 home runs for the Cardinals in 2010 as a 23-year old, but has been marred in a season-long slump in 2011, dipping his average to .240 with only 11 home runs. Apparently, Rasmus wore out his welcome with manager Tony LaRussa for seeking outside help for his hitting woes, which is a no-no for the Cardinals. When push came to shove, the team stuck with management and not Rasmus.

 However, he’s still young (24). He could easily figure out this funk and blossom into the well-rounded centerfielder experts had predicted he’d become. Here’s my problem with the trade: the Blue Jays didn’t need the help with their offense.

In the American League East, you will not win with a powerful line-up. Look at the Rays. Their line-up is below average for the American League, but they’re constantly competitive in the East because they have pitching depth very few other teams have. The Blue Jays dealt Stewart, one of their better pitching prospects, to get Jackson who enabled them to get Rasmus. In their system, they still have Kyle Drabek, their prize in the Roy Halladay trade. But, he struggled in his first stint of Major League action. The Jays will need a massive amount of pitching to catch up to the Rays, Yankees and Red Sox. I don’t see how this trade helps them, at all, in the long run.

Lastly, for the Cardinals, here’s why I don’t quite get it. I believe they are a team that has become in love with the notion that pitching coach Dave Duncan can fix any pitching problem. Edwin Jackson shows flashes of brilliance, and the Cardinals will try to harness those flashes into sustained excellence. And with Duncan’s track record, that very well could happen.

The team’s biggest hole was at shortstop, which they feel they answered by acquiring Rafael Furcal from the Los Angeles Dodgers. However, we will see if Furcal can stay healthy for any long period of time to actually help the team. They felt they could afford to trade Rasmus now because Lance Berkman has played so well in right field, and Jon Jay has exceeded expectations from all outfield positions.

My problem with this deal really comes back to Rasmus. I feel the team gave up on him much too early. He was their youngest player starting every day and, more importantly, was under team control on the cheap for at least another two years. With Albert Pujols soon to get a new contract, cheap, reliable talent is a major point of salary relief the team will need. Jon Jay has hit over .300 in his 600+ Major League at-bats thus far in his career. But, is he really your long-term centerfielder in St. Louis? I’m just not certain.

For me, the Cardinals will have to show me they have a viable solution in center before I move them out of limbo.

Other teams who tried to improve, and may have improved, but didn’t impress: Pittsburgh Pirates

Carlos Beltran and Me

As Major League Baseball approaches the trade deadline, a few stories stand out to me.

The first, the emergence of the Pittsburgh Pirates. This is a team that hasn’t had a winning record at the end of the season since 1992. 19 seasons. But, the Buccos are ON TOP of the National League Central standings, ahead of the Cardinals, Brewers and Reds. This is why its silly to make pre-season predictions on where teams will finish.

The second, the power of the Eastern division teams. In the American League, the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays are all fighting for what appear to be two play-off spots (the Wild Card is likely to come out of the East). While in the National League, the Phillies are dominating everybody with the best record in baseball and the Atlanta Braves are building a huge lead in the Wild Card as they have caught fire, too.

While those stories are nice, I must once again focus on the trade deadline and my New York Mets. Back in April, I sat down in front of my computer and wrote about a potential break-up between my fanhood and shortstop Jose Reyes. Well, since then, Jose Reyes has become the most exciting player in baseball, and quite possibly the most valuable. The Mets couldn’t afford to trade him, and no team could afford to acquire him. Signs are beginning to point towards a future extended stay in Flushing for Reyes, and I am happy as a clam.

Though that is good news, something else has begun to dawn on me:

The departure of right fielder Carlos Beltran.

You see, any Mets fan’s relationship with Beltran is one full of misconceptions, extreme highs and devestating lows. When the Mets signed Beltran in the winter of 2004 to his monster seven-year, $119 million contract, us Mets fans were stunned. Couple that signing with Pedro Martinez’s contract, and for the first time in what felt like centuries, there was brewing excitement. Beltran even coined the phrase “the New Mets”, which became a marketing tool for the team.

Before I go any further, let me remind Mets fans of my generation of one thing that I think they’ve overlooked greatly in evaluating Carlos Beltran’s Met career.  Beltran’s seven year stay in New York is easily the second-most successful seven year period of my Mets fanhood, behind only the Bobby Valentine years of 1996-2002. Yes, I am taking into account losing Game 7 in the NLCS in 2006, blowing late leads for playoff spots in 2007 and 2008, the crapshoot that was 2009 and even the meaninglessness of 2010.

Remember, the Mets don’t have much success. Period. They have a total of SEVEN playoff appearences. Four of those appearences happened before I was born. So the fact that the Mets won a division with Carlos Beltran as the team’s MVP that year HAS  to mean something.

Ok, now that I got that out of my system, back to my point. Beltran’s first season in New York was, for lack of a better term, a disappointment. There were high hopes for the team, but Beltran scuffled as he adjusted to the bright lights of the big city. He hit .266 with 16 home runs (seemingly only in games started by Pedro Martinez) while driving in 78 runs. People were quick to call him soft and not tough enough for New York. But, they also forget that the man played in 151 games that season even after bashing his face into Mike Cameron’s face in easily the worst on-field collision I’ve ever seen on a baseball field.

Then, after the Mets added the likes of Carlos Delgado and Paul LoDuca in trades, it was Beltran that led the charge for the Mets as they dominated the National League all year long. Beltran hit 41 home runs, drove in 116 runs, won a Gold Glove, a Silver Slugger and finished fourth in the MVP balloting. Even with his success, Mets fans probably remember Beltran’s 2006 as leaving the bat on his shoulder as Adam Wainwright dropped in a devastating curveball to advance the St. Louis Cardinals to the 2006 World Series, which they would win.

Side note: Why do Mets fans blame Beltran for this loss? I never understood it. I watched the same game as they did. To me, you look at Jose Valentin grounding into a double-play with the bases loaded after Endy Chavez made his orgasmic catch first. Then, why does Willie Randolph use a crippled Cliff Floyd as a pinch-hitter with a runner in scoring position? Lastly, it was Aaron Heilman’s hanging change-up that Yadier Molina ripped into the visitor’s bullpen that gave the Cardinals a 3-1 lead in extras. Going even further back, what the hell was Guillermo Mota thinking in Game 2 when he served up that cheesecake to Scott Spiezio?! Alright, I digress. Not Beltran’s fault. End of story.

2007 and 2008, I feel like Mets fans forget the success Beltran had due to the team’s overall collapse. Beltran averaged 30 home runs and 112 runs batted in that year, while receiving his second and third Gold Gloves as a Met. But, Beltran’s body started to betray him in 2009 (though every Met had his body betrayed in 2009). And in 2010, Beltran made the decision to have microfracture surgery on his knee seemingly without the Mets permission, having him miss the majority of that season as well.

Looking back at everything, I strongly believe Carlos Beltran will go down as the most underrated Met of all-time. He did it all for the Mets, and he made it seem so effortlessly and easy. In the end, its that ease to the game that made him seem lazy or soft. Unfair, I say!

When Carlos Beltran ever comes back to Citi Field wearing a different team’s uniform, I will always remember Beltran for 2006. I can list you my favorite five Mets games I’ve ever attended in person with ease (I’ll save you the time). On that list is a game from late August in 2006 when the Mets played the St. Louis Cardinals.

The game was touted as a match-up between the two favorites for the MVP, Beltran and Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols. By the third inning, Pujols was getting the best of the Mets, smashing two home runs and seven runs batted in to give the Cardinals a 7-1 lead. However, after a Carlos Delgado grand slam made it 7-5 going into the bottom of the ninth, the Mets began to rally. Jose Reyes drove in a run to bring the Mets within one and with two outs, it was Beltran who came walking to the plate.

Looking back at the highlights later, Gary Cohen said on the broadcast “one swing of the bat could win it for the Mets..” Cardinals closer Jason Isringhausen’s next pitch was a cutter that never cut and Beltran drilled it off the K Board for the walk-off homer. It was a no-doubter. The second it hit the bat, my dad and I both knew the Mets just won maybe the most thrilling game of the 2006 season. My long-time Met game buddy Ted refers to that game as “the game he should’ve went to” (my dad was originally supposed to work and offered his ticket to Ted, but called out and decided to go himself. Ted hasn’t let it go.).

That will be my image of Carlos Beltran. Walking to the plate to the rhythms of “El Esta Qui” day in and day out. His level swing crushing the pearl into the dark of night. Beltran was a cornerstone in what was one of the more entertaining periods of Mets baseball. No, they didn’t get the ring I was hoping for. But, Beltran put the Mets back into the conversation for the first time post-Piazza. While David Wright and Jose Reyes got all the headlines, it was Carlos Beltran quitely leading from the back of the room.

I will miss Carlos Beltran. The greatest center fielder in New York Mets history. And I promise you, there won’t be another one like him any time soon.

Greg Kaplan is a writer and co-founder of Home Field Advantage

POST EDIT: I published this story at 8:39pm EST. At 8:40, Carlos Beltran connected on a two-run home run to tie the game at 4 against none other than the St. Louis Cardinals. Something about that seems very special to me.

Baseball’s Second Half

The All-Star break has come and gone, a new home run champ was crowned, and the National League extended their Midsummer Classic win streak to: 2.

Derek Jeter went yard for #3,000– he should really thank David Price for that beauty.

Francisco Liriano and Justin Verlander both threw no-hitters, and each came close to a second. Buster Posey was injured in a home plate collision and Albert Pujols broke his wrist, then regenerated in half the time as a machine would. The Pirates are 47-43, yes the Pittsburgh Pirates, sitting in 3rd place, just one game out in the NL Central. The Mets are above .500 due to Jose Reyes and Carlos Beltran having seasons they’re capable of, the Mets have some hope. Their manager, Terry Collins, 62, “is older than the remote control and hadn’t managed a game in 11 years, is suddenly the second-youngest manager in the NL East (or, as it might be known in the latest realignment plan, the Del Boca Vista Division)” (SI Tom Verducci, Inside Baseball) And those Cleveland Indians, name one of their starting pitchers; name two of their outfielders; their DL is the who’s who of Cleveland but they’ve been in first and are currently in 2nd, half a game out. Whoda thunk it? Plus Brian Wilson and his beard have become the new rock star of baseball.

But don’t worry, the season isn’t too upside down, the AL East is a close race (you know who), the Phillies pitching rotation is competing at a high level and the Marlins can’t sell tickets (they closed the upper deck). So what’s going to happen in the second half? Who will hold on to each division? Can Pittsburgh make the playoffs?!

Milestone Progress

Derek Jeter’s 3,000 hit? Check, he’s at 3,004

Jim Thome’s (595) 600th home run? 5 away

Alex Rodriguez (626) catching Griffey (630) on the all-time home run list? 4 more. And Willie Mays (660)? 34 bombs, not likely

Ichiro’s 11th consecutive  200 hit season, breaking his tie with Pete Rose? 101 hits at the break, on pace for about 190 hits (ASG isn’t halfway point, technically)

Mariano Rivera (581) all-time saves leader? 22 saves in 2011, on pace for around 40, putting at or above Trevor Hoffman’s record 601

Albert Pujols’ 2,000 hit? 16 to go

Matt Stairs’ record breaking 13th team played for? Check: Expos, Red Sox, A’s, Cubs, Brewers, Pirates, Royals, Blue Jays, Rangers, Tigers, Phillies, Padres, Nationals. That’s 52 different jersey’s he’s worn (Can be contested that he’s still tied at 12  with Mike Morgan since the Expos became the Nationals)

Awards

AL MVP: Adrian Gonzalez, Red Sox

AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander, Tigers

AL Rookie of the Year: Michael Pineda, Mariners

AL Manager of the Year: Manny Acta, Indians

NL MVP: Matt Kemp, Dodgers

NL Cy Young: Roy Halladay, Phillies

NL Rookie of the Year: Freddie Freeman, Braves

NL Manager of the Year: Clint Hurdle, Pirates

October, who has survived?

AL East: New York Yankees

AL Central: Detroit Tigers

AL West: Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

AL Wildcard: Boston Red Sox

NL East: Philadelphia Phillies

NL Central: St. Louis Cardinals

NL West: Arizona Diamondbacks

NL Wild Card: Milwaukee Brewers

Yankees win the East? One of the East teams will be struck with key injuries causing a slide, I know I’ll probably pick the wrong one, but the Yanks have shown excellent ability to plug holes and win, and they have the run support. Boston needs to stay healthy and if their 1 through 5 starters continue to pitch well, plus their bullpen, they could be on top. And the West, what was I thinking? Diamondbacks over the Giants? It’s a wild division and it’s Arizona’s time. Something special in the desert again, they’re my surprise pick.

Parting Thoughts

Will we see Bryce Harper in 2011? Don’t think so, don’t care yet. He will be good though. I also think there will be no more no-no’s, plenty of rumors around a Mets fire sale (not happening), Jose Reyes’ price tag continues to fall, Lance Berkman stays an MVP candidate until the end, the Rangers lose focus, and their lead in the West, and Ichiro blows up with a hefty hitting streak.

Baseball has been very, very good to me

Michael Schwartz is a staff writer for Home Field Advantage

Frank McCourt: From the Parking Lot to Paradise and Back

Dodgers fans, you have a lot to be mad about, if you didn’t notice. A lot of people to blame, too. The sad part, as it almost always is, is that the fans didn’t deserve any of this. Fans didn’t ask to become divorce kids in the most damaging-to-baseball marriage split-up in the history of the game (if you come to me with some 1890s nonsense, just save it, it doesn’t matter.) You can be mad at Bud Selig for allowing a guy who owned a parking lot, and (here’s the kicker) not nearly enough capital to acquire the Dodgers, to do so. You can be mad at Frank (and Jamie) McCourt, for going ahead and doing so. You can be mad at anybody who had anything to do with letting this catastrophe happen. This whole thing is like Bud Selig looked at two trains headed directly for each other and said that they wouldn’t collide, because one of the trains just got new wheels. There was no reason to believe that Frank McCourt was going to be a good owner for the Dodgers, he was just a dude with a valuable parking lot. I don’t know if I can hammer this home enough– all Frank McCourt had on you, or me, was a parking lot. We would all fall into the pool of “not having enough money to buy the Dodgers” he just happened to have that parking lot. In case you were wondering, the lot was valued at approximately $200 million, when it was flipped by NewsCorp (who acquired the lot when McCourt bought the Dodgers from them) to Morgan Stanley. Obviously, $200 million isn’t enough to buy the Dodgers. But guess what! Frank McCourt still got to buy the Dodgers, through a deal financed largely on debt. This actually happened; this was actually allowed by a professional sports league to be done to one of its landmark franchises.

Now what? Bud Selig just blocked a $3 billion deal that would have given Fox Sports Network the rights to broadcast Dodgers games, and allowed Frank McCourt to meet his payroll, and everything would have been wonderful in paradise. I don’t blame Bud Selig for blocking the deal. For one, it was quite possibly undervalued. Two, allowing a team that is currently being fought over in divorce court to add 3 billion problems (cue Jay-Z) to the situation, is another patently idiotic decision. Thus, Frank McCourt had to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in order for payroll to be met, and all kinds of other fun financial jargon that Dodgers fans rightfully don’t, and shouldn’t have to, care about.At the end of the day, when this divorce is over, neither Frank nor Jamie McCourt will own the Dodgers, and the fans will be left with a team that is stuck in professional sports purgatory for the foreseeable future. Some married couples try to stay together for the kids– Frank and Jamie couldn’t stay together for the millions of Dodgers fans out there. What does that tell you?

 

It's never good when Manny is the most trustworthy person in a picture. (No offense to those camera dudes.)

Let’s look at the landscape of professional sports right now.

NFL- If this league was a movie character, it’d be Gordon Gekko. It has become quite obvious with these guys that the motto is “greed is good.” They’re currently in the middle of a labor dispute about nothing (maybe they’d be Seinfeld if they were a show.) All they’re fighting over is who gets the bigger piece of the $9 billion cookie cake. Lovely. A problem that all of us Americans slogging through a historically crappish economy can relate to. Remind me to feel sorry for the financial plight of any of these guys as soon as the cow jumps over the moon.

NBA- Locked out as well. This one is because the “savvy businessmen” who own these teams couldn’t put together a business model that would allow for them to make money. That’s right, dudes who made enough money to buy basketball teams didn’t have enough in the think tank to figure out a way to make those teams profitable. They could start by not handing out guaranteed contracts that paid the players receiving said contracts 5000 cents on the dollar when it comes to their actual value. Remind yourself to be shocked that the owners in this league are losing money.

MLB- Two of the league’s marquee franchises are currently in a major state of limbo. The Dodgers, as I mentioned above, and the Mets have had their well-documented financial strife as well. Don’t look now, but the group who bought the Astros took on a considerable amount of debt to do so. What’s that quote about those who don’t pay attention to history being doomed to repeat it? Oh, wait…

NHL- They’ve actually been doing pretty well since the 04-05 lockout. They just signed the biggest television contract in the history of their league this year, which will put more games on TV than ever before, and their financial pie has been growing each year. Unfortunately, America is too lazy to look for Versus on their cable guide. That’s not the NHL’s fault. They have the most captivating in-person product of the 4 major sports, and TV just doesn’t do it justice– and if you didn’t know already, getting people to the arena is harder than getting them to find your product on TV. So the NHL is at a competitive disadvantage, but they’re actually not doing too badly right now. Kudos to them. Their free agency frenzy is happening at the best possible time.

People ask us why we care so much about sports. These owners, whether it be Frank McCourt, the NFL owners, the NBA owners, or anybody, don’t seem to be doing us much justice right now. All we want, really, is not to feel like an ass for rooting for the team we root for. And right now, these professional sports leagues are seemingly kicking that notion to the curb. They don’t really care how stupid we feel for supporting their product, as long as we continue to finance their product. I apologize if this post is taking on the same tone as some of my previous posts, but it’s because there’s an overwhelming trend that seems to be more evident than it ever has before. The people in charge of the games we love just straight up don’t give a damn about what we think, or how we feel. I’m sorry Dodgers fans, if I could promise you that things would get better, I would. But, unfortunately, as it always is with sports, you’re just going to have to buck up and get through it.

 

Steve Sabato is a contributing writer for Home Field Advantage

 

The Flyers go Hog Wild

Let’s say you’re on a road trip with your family from New York to New Mexico. You drive and you drive, and you drive some more. You get to El Paso, and your dad decides to turn the car around, drive back East, and try the trip on a completely different route, because he thinks it’s better. If your family didn’t stage a mutiny before he had the chance to do it, you’d be pretty pissed off the rest of the trip. That’s what Paul Holmgren just did with the Flyers.

Most hockey fans with an idea of what they are talking about believed that the Flyers were one competent goaltender away from winning a Stanley Cup. Well, they’re going to get their goaltender, but they just removed two of the key cogs that helped make the orange machine roll. Most people believed that Ville Leino and Nikolai Zherdev would have to go in order to create the cap space for Ilya Bryzgalov, the Russian goaltender whose days in Phoenix were quite obviously over. Instead, they’ve got Bryzgalov, a team minus two of its best players, Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds, and a prospect. This is a team taking on a whole new image; a team that looks like it’s trying to start something new.

I don’t know if you missed the hockey season that preceded this one, but the Flyers played in the Stanley Cup Finals as a 7th seed, against the Chicago Blackhawks, who had basically stocked the warchest and invested everything they could into winning the cup in 2009-10. Fittingly, the Flyers lost on a weak goal, which really captured the problem in Philadelphia. Goaltending. Mike Richards and Jeff Carter might have been party animals, and that might have made Paul Holmgren mad, but they were not the reason that the Flyers got their butts handed to them by the eventual Stanley Cup Champion Bruins. It was, once again, putrid goaltending, and defense that left a lot to be desired.

For Mike Richards, Los Angeles gave Philadelphia Brayden Schenn, who was its top prospect, and Wayne Simmonds, a solid 2nd or 3rd line scorer, who helps the Flyers maintain some depth. Schenn has scored 315 points in 242 games with the Brandon Wheat Kings of the WHL, and many believe that he will be a very strong player in the NHL one day. Is one day going to come soon enough for Flyers fans? It’s hard to tell.This is a town that is starving for a cup.

Speaking of one day, that’s what the Flyers are planning for with the 8th pick of this NHL Draft, which they received from Columbus, along with a 3rd rounder, and Jakub Voracek, another mid-line scorer. Maybe Brayden Schenn and Pick #8 will be a dynamic duo that will dazzle Philadelphia in the future, but again, that’s not what Philly was supposed to have been planning for. This trade feels like Paul Holmgren cutting off his nose to spite his face. One of the amusing undertones to this is the fact that Paul Holmgren looks exactly like Jurgen Prochnow, famous for his roles in Das Boot, and the movie that focused on a glass called das boot, Beerfest.

Maybe the Flyers will look like this next year

Amidst all of this, they signed Ilya Bryzgalov to a 9 year, $51 million deal. In the last two off-seasons men named Ilya have signed for 26 years and $156 million. That seemed relevant to point out. Bryzgalov’s contract will likely be front-loaded, and when he gets old, the Flyers and him will part ways, with very minimal financial damage to the Flyers, and Ilya having made the lion’s share of the money he could possibly earn in the contract.

There are rumors that the Flyers could be in the market to make a run at a guy like Brad Richards or Steven Stamkos, but that feels like a “pie in the sky” idea. Paul Holmgren looks like a mad scientist if it works out that way, but it’s a lot of eggs in a fragile basket if that’s his plan. All I know is, I feel like somebody should have jumped in front of Paul Holmgren before he finally pulled the trigger on this deal. I don’t think that Philly fans are going to like the end result of this, as they may have just turned themselves into the Phoenix Coyotes of the East. A team with a really strong goaltender, but no player who really terrifies his opponents. Mike Richards was always a threat, Jeff Carter could score from anywhere on the ice. All of that has been sacrificed in order to take a completely different route to the cup.

Welcome to El Paso, Flyers Fans, and I’m sorry to tell you– the car’s turning around.

Steve Sabato is a Staff Writer for Home Field Advantage

Down Goes Sir Albert

I’ll save you from the “Machine is broken” talk. Albert is human and has feelings. Now, what does this non-displaced fracture of Albert Pujols’ left wrist mean for his future? The St. Louis Cardinals’ future? Baseball’s future?

Why, I do not know, but I cannot find any video of the injury. It would be right here.

Anyways, right off the bat (oh boy, puns), not much for baseball’s future. The League will miss Albert, but no rule changes or any of that baloney (ahem Buster Posey). Albert was out of position and was making an effort to get an out (Buster was out of position, off-balance) and an accident happened. I wouldn’t want to be in the wrong position at the wrong time this season, stars are falling. No rule changes here, no fuss.

Now for Sir Albert’s future, there are some legitimate question marks. Will his wrist and forearm properly heal? To his former strength? Will his swing be affected? The wrist is a joint, where the two bones of the forearm connect to the metacarpal hand bones. A non-displaced fracture of the wrist is most often a fracture of the radius, the bone that rotates with your thumb side. Of the two bones, the radius is larger and is more important in the wrist joint. Pujols bats and throws right-handed, which helps. As seen in the play where the injury occurred, his left and gloved hand was jammed into the base runner; aside from that play, no other future concerns in the field. Hitting may be a different story, but this is Albert Pujols people. His left arm is leading toward the pitcher as the hitter and takes care of the downward motion of the swing and the pull through. His broken wrist will have some short-term effect on his power, but he’s a good enough hitter to hit line drives and conserve some of the energy in that wrist. It will be sore of course, but with good rest and rehabilitation his wrist should heal, I expect it to be 100% for the 2012 season. Once he returns after the 4-6 weeks the Cardinals staff set, he’ll be good, but not his usual self. The majority of his power comes from his incredible hitting ability, and hand-eye-coordination, giving him all the power and skill in the world. If St. Louis makes the playoffs, Albert will find a way to be his dominant self.

Things aren’t so awful for the Cardinals, either. Tony LaRussa is an excellent manager, and this years team, is special for LaRussa. Nearly all of the position players play multiple positions, allowing LaRussa to plug-in different lineups, and they’re all playing well. Lance Berkman has played left, right and first and is having an incredible comeback season. The pitching staff has been able to plug and chug new pitchers, and maintain a high level of play. Pujols’ contract is up after this year, after not resigning this off-season. As I’m writing this, St. Louis is half a game up on the Brewers for 1st in the N.L. Central. Even with Pujols in a “slump”. For Albert, a .279 batting average is no bueno; but his 17 homeruns and 45 RBI are decent. Albert’s injury is a chance for the Cards to see what they have as a team, and potential see what life without Pujols could be like. Will Pujols resign with the Cards after the season? He most likely won’t get the 10 years he was asking for, but chances are he’ll be back in St. Louis next year. The Cards will be more than willing to bring their star back, with fewer questions than other clubs. If Albert Pujols gets away, shame on them.

Shaquille O’Neal retires

14-time All-Star and former NBA MVP center Shaquille O’Neal announced his retirement over the social media video messaging site Tout (ESPN Link). O’Neal, who most recently played for the Boston Celtics, had been battling a series of injuries late in his career, including an Achilles injury that held him out of action in this year’s playoffs.

O’Neal won four NBA championships in his career (three with the Los Angeles Lakers and one with the Miami Heat) and scored 28,596 points during his stellar career.He made a name for himself in his three standout season playing for LSU and was number one overall pick by the Orlando Magic in 1992. Teaming up with Anfernee “Penny” Hardaway early in his career, O’Neal established himself as a star inside that could battle with the likes of established stars Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing and David Robinson.

After appearing in four All-Star games in his first four seasons, O’Neal forced his way out of Orlando and was traded to the Los Angeles Lakers, forming one of the most dominate teams of the late 90’s and early 2000’s with Kobe Bryant. However, O’Neal and Bryant shared a very tumultuous relationship and it was commonly believed that the tension between the two led to O’Neal’s eventual trade to the Miami Heat before the 2004-05 season, even though the tandem had won three championships together.

Alongside Dwayne Wade in Miami, O’Neal took home what would be his fourth and final championship in 2005-06. The Heat were trailing the Dallas Mavericks two games to none when the Heat completed a massive Game 3 comeback and won the remaining four games. After the championship season, O’Neal began to experience a series of medical maladies that shortchanged his seasons. He played only 40 games in his final full season with Miami and 61 total between Miami and Phoenix the next season. O’Neal would finish his career bouncing between the Suns, Cleveland Cavaliers and most recently the Boston Celtics.

Arguably O’Neal had his best season in 1999-00, the year he won his only Most Valuable Player award. O’Neal played a career-high 79 games and averaged 29.7 points, 13.6 rebounds and 239 blocks. For his career, O’Neal averaged 24.7 points and 11.2 rebounds and is a lock to be elected to the NBA Hall of Fame.

Shaq is one of the biggest personalities to ever set foot on an NBA court. Before Chad Ochocinqo, Shaq was calling himself Diesel, Superman, Shaqtus, and the Big Shamrock, among others. He is also one of the most dynamic centers to every play the game. Shaq was the first to introduce the new wave of athletic big men coming into the NBA. Unlike Robinson, Ewing and Olajuwon, Shaq was more athletic and dominating inside against older opponents. He was the bridge between the old school, back-to-the-basket center and the new school, perimeter style center along with Tim Duncan. No player in the NBA today can match the dominate inside defense and power-scoring offense that O’Neal mastered, and that includes Dwight Howard.

It is safe to say that the NBA is unlikely to see a talent that is as charismatic and dominating as Shaquille O’Neal was in his prime.

Greg Kaplan is a writer and co-founder of Home Field Advantage